Some thoughts around future of work
I have a 3 year old nephew and in any conversation with my cousin on how to school him/ where to school him we have this conversation about how will his world be when he is in his twenties and how can he prepare his kid for that world
This is a common question that millions of parents face. Right now they have no other option than to go through the tried and tested route of enrolling him/her in a school and hope to god that it works.
Unfortunately we are in a unique time in the history of mankind and the education that was relevant probably 15 years ago is not anymore. The pace of change that we have now cannot be compared to any period in the history of mankind (Yes I am talking to you too ,Industrial Civilization)
These are some of my thoughts around the future of work crystallized from the reading that I have been doing .
Relevant Skills :
Defining precisely what skill is relevant 20 years from now is inherently impossible. While the 1950’s -2000’s were the years of engineers for the western world, where the focus was on how we can make things faster, efficient and convenient I think the next half a century or so is going to be about solving problems related to Climate Change and Healthcare.
These 2 problems are going to impact what is “Relevant” and “Valuable”
While I do see articles of how machines are able to create art and music I don't think creative professions will be disrupted as much by this trend because I believe that the value of an art is not driven just by art, but it is driven by the story behind the art and this is fundamentally a “Human” endeavor.
Evolution of Corporations :
Echoing Naval Ravikant’s thoughts, I think corporations are going to be smaller and smaller and we are going to see most of the functioning of an organization through a network of organizations supporting each other similar to how some web applications operate calling services of other applications through API’s. The “Non Core” functions of the organization would move and what we will have will be just the core function and a few custodians for the “Non Core” functions. When I talk about the size, I am only talking about the number of employees and not the revenue of the company. I still see the world dominated by a small number of huge corporations and a huge number of smaller organizations which are specialized in some niche.
Freelancing :
My thoughts on evolution of corporations leads me to this important trend which is going to strengthen. The pandemic has indeed created a new normal and organizations have realized that they can get work done in completely remote way. This will open up org’s to completely new ways of working in terms of engaging smaller groups/ individual contractors . The “Non Core“ functions will move to this model of working.
Content Creation/Marketing :
While in the past, your gateway to an excellent job would have been a shiny resume with top pedigree education, I do not see this trend strengthening. The only thing a top college education provides you that is meaningful is the network of contacts that it provides. These “tribes” or “networks” will lose strength and with democratization of knowledge that is happening due to online disruption, your value to an organization is going to be purely driven by what you have done and not where you have studied.
And what you have done is going to be a function of your online and offline presence and credibility driven by marketing yourself, because the functions that you will be involved in cannot and will not be measured through interviews alone. This is why content creation is going to be a very important attribute for jobs in the future.
The India Context:
I do have to provide an India context because fundamentally my country is a completely different ball game . While broadly the above trends would play out here as well, we have a long long way to go before these trends massively kick in. I do see a net benefit in the medium term of 10–15 years for India because of the trends of non core functions moving away to “Cheaper Destinations”.
How do we prepare the next generation for this future of Work ?. Some key things which I think will help.
- Encouraging kids to follow their passion (Cliched, but) : Why parents sometimes discourage kids in certain fields is because they have this out dated notion that there are only a few options which will economically sustain you. Parents will have to realize that the world in 20 year’s time is going to be extremely different from what we have now and they need to be a bit more humble in recognizing this
- Focusing on the emotional quotient : Frankly , this is what is going to separate humans from AI in the future, and this is going to drive the value of human work.
